FX Navigator (Sep): USD tested by structural drivers

26 August 2026

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USD tested by structural drivers

Key takeaways

The FX market is again testing the USD on the basis of structural drivers, but cyclical factors have also been relevant.
We look for USD consolidation at these lower levels, but this hinges on US policymakers regaining market confidence.
Apart from renewed JPY weakness, most of core G10 FX may range sideways.

Our tactical view

^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against

major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF.

Source: HSBC

HSBC Positioning Indices

Note: Priced as of market close 21 August 2026

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

Note: *Priced as at 18:58 HKT on 21 August 2026

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

Tactical view

USD weakness has been driven by a mix of cyclical, political and structural forces, with FX intervention, fiscal sustainability concerns and Treasury buybacks disrupting the usual relationship between yield moves and the USD. The USD has been slipping whether yields rise or fall.
Two-year yield differentials still matter most but their grip has eased. Recent US data has turned more dovish and pricing for a September rate hike has fallen. The employment and CPI prints ahead of the September FOMC, along with Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on 28 August, will be important for USD direction.
Our near-term USD outlook is neutral but uncertainty remains high, as USD-supportive factors (buybacks are not quantitative easing, looser financial conditions from lower longterm yields strengthen the case for a Fed hike, and relative fiscal strains abroad) compete with significant USD selling momentum and still-long USD positioning

Note: *Priced as at 18:58 HKT on 21 August 2026

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Tactical view

EUR-USD has risen sharply since the July FOMC meeting. A large portion of this move can be attributed to the market’s growing discomfort with the USD amid questions around the Fed’s commitment to taming inflation, and the pressures at the long end of the US yield curve. Indeed, we think the broad USD remains the key driver behind EURUSD.
Long-end yield dynamics have helped push EUR-USD higher, but that support may fade if the Treasury buyback narrative becomes more balanced and Fed communication reassures, allowing the USD to stabilise.
With our USD outlook now more neutral, further EUR-USD gains may need European catalysts. Recent support has come from firmer Eurozone activity data and hawkish inflation surprises. Higher energy prices and the ECB’s warnings about food-driven inflation risks keep the case for a September rate hike strong.

Note: *Priced as at 18:58 HKT on 21 August 2026

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Tactical view

The European Central Bank (ECB)’s more hawkish tilt suggests a firmer rate outlook in the Eurozone.
UK growth remains tepid, keeping the Bank of England (BoE) constrained. HSBC Economics expects Bank Rate to stay at 3.75%, versus market pricing of 50bp of rate hikes over the coming year.
Nonetheless, for EUR-GBP, there are no compelling local elements that would argue for a big move in the cross.

Note: *Priced as at 18:58 HKT on 21 August 2026

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Tactical view

GBP-USD’s recent rise is mainly USD-driven (markets less convinced the Fed stays hawkish); after moving above 1.36 it’s nearer fair value, so further upside likely needs additional USD weakness rather than UK good news.
UK fundamentals are mixed and energy is the key risk: growth/activity have stabilized and underlying inflation is subdued, but higher oil/gas prices are a potential headwind. HSBC Economics still don’t expect BoE to hike given a weak labour market in contrast to the market pricing a hike by year end and a second in April 2027.
GBP-USD has extended beyond the levels implied by interest rate differentials but negative USD sentiment prevails. With focus on Fed chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech (28 August) and the next Fed meeting (16 September), we think the broad USD sentiment will remain dominant, keeping GBP-USD elevated in the near term.

Note: *Priced as at 18:58 HKT on 21 August 2026

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Tactical view

USD-JPY dropped materially after the late-July FX intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (supported by the US Treasury), but intervention alone hasn’t changed the underlying trend and the pair has already started creeping higher again, similar to the post-intervention drift earlier in 2026.
The threat of intervention remains in play (scope for another episode before early November) and a softer USD narrative could offer some JPY support. However, rate differentials matter more than broad USD moves for USD-JPY, so USD weakness alone is unlikely to drive sustained JPY strength.
Bank of Japan expectations have turned more hawkish (more tightening priced, with ~80% probability of a September hike), but without guidance pointing to faster follow-up hikes, the base case is a renewed, though slower, grind higher in USD-JPY, tempered by USD headwinds and intervention risk.

Note: *Priced as at 18:58 HKT on 21 August 2026

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Tactical view

EUR has also gained on improving growth signals and hawkish inflation data, but a lot of tightening is already in the price now.
A dramatic month of co-ordinated JPY intervention, a hawkish repricing of BoJ expectations and a softer USD tone has strengthened the JPY, but the drivers of its earlier weakness remain in place, albeit more slowly given ongoing intervention risk.

Note: *Priced as at 18:58 HKT on 21 August 2026

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Tactical view

The CHF’s low yield continues to weigh on the currency, although valuations looked stretched: before the strong CHF rally on 19 August, USD-CHF was ~3% above the median of our modelled.
With Switzerland’s low oil-GDP intensity, its terms-of-trade impacts have been limited, but the market has continued to focus on the CHF’s lack of carry buffer, leaving it less responsive to shifts in risk appetite.
With USD-CHF looking closer to fair value, we see USD-CHF moving sideways.

Note: *Priced as at 18:58 HKT on 21 August 2026

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Tactical view

We expect EUR-CHF to trade broadly sideways in the coming weeks. Rates remain the primary driver of the pair, with both short and long-term yields shaping recent price action, while CHF’s low yield continues to weigh on the currency.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) outlook remains central, with market pricing for the SNB comfortably lagging the rest of G10 since the beginning of the Middle East conflict.
Swiss CPI on 3 September therefore presents some event risk for the currency. After rising 0.6% y-o-y in May (from 0.1% in January), there are signs that headline inflation has begun to fall again. A third consecutive fall could revive concerns around SNB FX intervention. However, if oil prices keep rising and this drives fears of a prolonged equity sell-off, the CHF may still have scope to strengthen.

Note: *Priced as at 18:58 HKT on 21 August 2026

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Tactical view

Recent US–Canada trade headlines have briefly supported CAD, but USD-CAD is being driven more by conventional factors than trade noise; the pair has fallen with the broader USD pullback, yet that USD adjustment looks largely done and USD-CAD now looks a bit low versus its historical link to the broad USD index (implying closer to ~1.40).
Relative rates remain the key driver, and on that metric too USD-CAD appears below fair value versus the historical relationship with 2Y rate differentials, again pointing to ~1.40 as a more consistent level.
With Bank of Canada (BoC) expected to hold rates steady on 2 September and markets priced for at least three hikes over the next year (well ahead of Fed pricing), any patience or dovish nuance from the BoC – and limited evidence so far of second-round energycost effects – could push USD-CAD higher.

Note: *Priced as at 18:58 HKT on 21 August 2026

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Tactical view

AUD-USD has become less driven by broad USD moves, with commodities – particularly gold – now the key driver; the AUD has the strongest gold correlation among G10-USD pairs since March.
The AUD continues to stand out from a carry standpoint, with the Cash Rate still the highest policy rate in G10. We believe this factor has also aided the AUD in recent weeks, with the currency becoming relatively resilient despite the combination of higher oil and lower global equities.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hawkish risks persist as inflation remains above target despite softer labour and confidence signals; with July CPI (26 August) and Q2 GDP (2 September) ahead, and only ~18bps of hikes priced, we expect the AUD to stay broadly steady. The central bank next meets on 29 September.

Note: *Priced as at 18:58 HKT on 21 August 2026

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Tactical view

We expect elevated gold prices and the prospect of a still-hawkish RBA to keep the AUD supported.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)’s stance also remains NZD-positive, with markets still pricing the most tightening in G10 over the next year.
With both currencies underpinned by supportive domestic rate dynamics, we expect AUD-NZD to trade broadly steady in the coming weeks.

Note: *Priced as at 18:58 HKT on 21 August 2026

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

Tactical view

NZD-USD remains closely tied to broad USD moves, and unlike the AUD, has struggled to decouple from the general USD trend.
The key near-term risk is the RBNZ meeting on 2 September. A hike is close to fully priced by the market, with just over four hikes priced over the next year (still the most in G10, though below expectations from earlier this year). We see it as NZD-supportive if the RBNZ signals it can broadly validate current market pricing for the policy path.
Domestic data still supports a hawkish bias, with activity rebounding and policymakers likely focusing on the Q2 CPI print (4.1% y-o-y) despite softer Q3 inflation expectations. However, oil/geopolitical sensitivity and election-related political uncertainty, should limit upside – so we expect NZD-USD to trade sideways in the coming weeks.

Dovish

Dovish refers to an economic outlook which generally supports low interest rates as a means of encouraging growth within the economy.

Hawkish

Hawkish is typically used to describe monetary policy which favours higher interest rates, and tighter monetary controls to keep inflation in check.

MoM / YoY

Month on month / Year on year

PMI

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of economic health of the manufacturing sector (>50 represents expansion vs. the previous month).

IMM data

International Monetary Market (IMM) is a division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that deals with the trading of currencies and interest rate futures and options and the IMM data is part of the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The IMM data provides a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open futures positions on the IMM. Speculative positions are a trader’s non-commercial positions (i.e. not for hedging purposes).

G10

G10 refers to the most heavily traded, liquid currencies in the world: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD, NOK, and SEK.

Fed / FOMC

Federal Reserve System (US’s Central Bank) / Federal Open Market Committee.

ECB

European Central Bank (Eurozone’s Central Bank).

BoE

Bank of England (UK’s Central Bank).

BoJ

Bank of Japan (Japan’s Central Bank).

BoC

Bank of Canada (Canada’s Central Bank).

RBA

Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia’s Central Bank).

RBNZ

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (New Zealand’s Central Bank).

SNB

Swiss National Bank (Switzerland’s Central Bank).

Spot: Spot refers to the current market price of a currency pair that is important for immediate transactions.

50 dma: 50-day simple moving average number represents the average price of an index or a currency pair over the past 50 days.

Support (S), Resistance (R): Support and resistance are significant previous lows and highs plus retracement levels, based on historical price patterns of an index or a currency pair. Support is a historical price level where a downtrend of a currency pair paused due to demand for the first currency quoted in the pair increasing, while resistance is a historical price level where an uptrend of a currency pair reversed amid demand for the second currency quoted in the pair increasing.

HSBC Positioning Indices: The indicators have been devised to track the net position of momentum traders, looking at hundreds of strategies, operating over many different time horizons. It considers time horizons of 5 days up to 260 days. An indicator level of +10 would indicate that the hundreds of different strategies have all lined up and gone long (i.e., buy the first currency quoted in the pair). Similarly, an indicator level of -10 indicates that all strategies are short (i.e., sell the first currency quoted in the pair).
Tactical view where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY): An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➔) arrow indicates that the first currency quoted in the pair is expected by HSBC Global Investment Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks.

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