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FX Navigator (Aug) : The case for USD upside still intact

5 August 2026

Key takeaways

  • The USD is finishing July on the back foot, hit by the FOMC outcome, JPY intervention, and hawkish signals from outside the US
  • While the pullback argues for caution, we still see the broader case for USD upside as intact
  • Fed messaging may seek to reinforce inflation-fighting credibility, but renewed USD strength will likely need help from upcoming US data releases

Our tactical view

^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against

major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF.

Source: HSBC

HSBC Positioning Indices

Note: Priced as of market close 31 July 2026

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

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