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US Perspective - Feb 2025 Short-term repricing but long-term fundamentals remain constructive

10/02/2025
US Equity

by Jose Rasco, CIO, Americas,HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth

Summary: The US equity market remains resilient, with optimism driven by strong earnings growth in 2025 and 2026. Historical trends and strong fundamentals support expectations for solid equity market returns, underpinned by deregulation, AI adoption, and economic stability. Technology leads as AI continues to be the fastest-adopted technology in history, broadening beyond the “Magnificent Seven.” Financials are poised for growth from regional bank consolidation and deregulation, the reindustrialization of the US continues to drive earnings in the industrials sector, while consumer sectors benefit from stable disposable incomes despite pressure on lower-income households.

  • US equities continue to be repriced as we realign to the many new realities of 2025. The US has a new President and Congressional leadership and the new political realities are just beginning to unfold
  • US inflation slowed dramatically in the past two years, but in 4Q24 began to look a little stickier. In addition, the US recently hit the debt ceiling and the Continuing Resolution that has kept the government funded expires in mid-March 2025
  • The S&P 500 is projected to grow earnings by 15 per cent, a forecast that has remained consistent since April 2024. Some analysts believe 15 per cent may be underestimated, indicating potential upside. Despite significant macroeconomic shifts (the Fed’s pivot to easing, Trump’s victory), the 15 per cent forecast stayed flat, reflecting conservative modeling. The stability of this forecast suggests potential for positive surprises, especially if deregulation and tax relief materialize
  • According to FactSet as of January 24th, for CY 2024, analysts expect yoy earnings growth of 9.5 per cent. For Q1 2025 and Q2 2025, analysts are calling for earnings growth rates of 11.3 per cent and 11.6 per cent, respectively. For CY 2025, analysts are predicting yoy earnings growth of 14.8 per cent. For CY 2026, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 13.6 per cent yoy. While the pace of the Fed’s monetary policy easing cycle may shift throughout the year, the downward trajectory for both inflation and interest rates seems clear. This is a positive for both fixed income and equity market investors. The US equity market remains resilient, with optimism driven by strong projected earnings growth this year and next

 

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