Top of main content
Market Update - Our thoughts on US Supreme Court ruling and Middle East scenarios

27 February 2026

Jose Rasco

CIO, Americas, HSBC Private Bank and Premier Wealth

Highlights: The US Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that President Trump could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, but the administration will continue tariff policy under alternative statutory powers. Using section 122, a new 10% global tariff was announced on Friday but already changed to 15% on Saturday. This comes on top of existing measures and will remain in place for up to 150 days. The ruling, and the administration’s quick reaction using other powers, were largely expected by markets, limiting the market reaction. We could see a small increase in bond yields if markets worry about lower fiscal revenues. USD could be slightly weaker on positive global sentiment. Meanwhile, it is unclear whether there will be military action in Iran; as we do not want to speculate, we examine the possible market impact under different scenarios.

  • While the measures under IEEPA were struck down, existing national security tariffs under Section 232 (Trade Expansion Act of 1962) and China-related tariffs under Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974) remain fully intact. New Section 301 investigations are being initiated
  • Treasury officials indicated that total tariff revenue in 2026 is expected to remain virtually unchanged, suggesting policy continuity despite the Court’s ruling
  • Section 122 authority is time-limited, meaning there are three options thereafter: transition into expanded Section 232 (product level) or 301 (country level) actions, or congressional involvement to extend the Section 122 measure before expiration
  • Prior estimates suggested that up to USD170 billion in tariff revenue could potentially be subject to refund claims, though actual payments would depend on final legal outcomes and administrative guidance, will take a lot of time and may be limited to firms that litigated
  • The financial market reaction was muted but constructive so far, particularly in import-reliant sectors such as retail, consumer discretionary, autos, and select industrials, reflecting lower near-term cost pressures and reduced legal uncertainty. For fixed income and FX, the effects are more nuanced. Lower effective import taxes may ease goods inflation at the margin over time, modestly supportive for bonds, while reduced trade tension offers limited near-term support to risk sentiment. Positive sentiment outside of the US points to mild USD weakness
  • In summary, the ruling narrows the legal pathway for sweeping tariffs but does not signal a structural retreat from tariff use in US trade policy

Important Information for Customers

THE CONTENTS OF THIS DOCUMENT HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED BY ANY REGULATORY AUTHORITY IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION. YOU ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN RELATION TO THE INVESTMENT AND THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU ARE IN DOUBT ABOUT ANY OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS DOCUMENT, YOU SHOULD OBTAIN INDEPENDENT PROFESSIONAL ADVICE.

This document has been issued by HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited (the “Bank”) in the conduct of its regulated business in China. It is not intended for anyone other than the recipient. The contents of this document may not be reproduced or further distributed to any person or entity, whether in whole or in part, for any purpose. This document must not be distributed to the United States, Canada or Australia or to any other jurisdiction where its distribution is unlawful. All non-authorised reproduction or use of this document will be the responsibility of the user and may lead to legal proceedings.

This document has no contractual value and is not and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer or a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any investment [in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not lawful] or subscribe for, or to participate in, any services. The Bank is not recommending or soliciting any action based on it.

The information stated and/or opinion(s) expressed in this document are provided by HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited. We do not undertake any obligation to issue any further publications to you or update the contents of this document and such contents are subject to changes at any time without notice. They are expressed solely as general market information and/or commentary for general information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell investments or guarantee of returns. The Bank has not been involved in the preparation of such information and opinion.

The Bank and HSBC Group and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document (or in any related investments) (if any) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities or financial instruments or investments. The Bank and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities or financial instruments discussed in this document (or in related investments) (if any), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies.

The information contained within this document has not been reviewed in the light of your personal circumstances. Please note that this information is neither intended to aid in decision making for legal, financial or other consulting questions, nor should it be the basis of any investment or other decisions. You should carefully consider whether any investment views and investment products are appropriate in view of your investment experience, objectives, financial resources and relevant circumstances and make investment decision on your own. The relevant product offering documents should be read for further details.

Some of the statements contained in this document may be considered forward-looking statements which provide current expectations or forecasts of future events. Such forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and involve risks and uncertainties. Such statements do not represent any one investment and are used for illustration purpose only. Customers are reminded that there can be no assurance that economic conditions described herein will remain in the future. Actual results may differ materially from those described in such forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. We can give no assurance that those expectations reflected in those forward-looking statements will prove to have been correct or come to fruition, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. We do not undertake any obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained herein, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, or to update the reasons why actual results could differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become valueless and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance contained in this document is not a reliable indicator of future performance whilst any forecasts, projections and simulations contained herein should not be relied upon as an indication of future results. Past performance information may be out of date. For up-to-date information, please contact your Relationship Manager.

Investment in any market may be extremely volatile and subject to sudden fluctuations of varying magnitude due to a wide range of direct and indirect influences. Such characteristics can lead to considerable losses being incurred by those exposed to such markets. If an investment is withdrawn or terminated early, it may not return the full amount invested. In addition to the normal risks associated with investing, international investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavourable fluctuations in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in certain jurisdictions. Narrowly focused investments and smaller companies typically exhibit higher volatility. There is no guarantee of positive trading performance. Investments in emerging markets are by their nature higher risk and potentially more volatile than those inherent in some established markets. Economies in emerging markets generally are heavily dependent upon international trade and, accordingly, have been and may continue to be affected adversely by trade barriers, exchange controls, managed adjustments in relative currency values and other protectionist measures imposed or negotiated by the countries with which they trade. These economies also have been and may continue to be affected adversely by economic conditions in the countries in which they trade. Investment schemes are subject to market risks. You should read all scheme related documents carefully.

Copyright © HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited 2026. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited