A guide to COP27 – In search of progress across the board

COP27 is a significant event in the climate calendar, but may not garner as much media attention as last year’s COP26 in Glasgow. Though with fewer critical decisions to agree upon, it is still vitally important for progress on climate actions to be achieved post Glasgow. Also important will be to prepare for global stocktake (or the assessment of progress against the Paris Agreement goals) in 2023, and lay the groundwork for key decisions to be adopted in the coming years. 

Whilst the global climate process under the UNFCCC is a continually evolving ongoing process with defined goals, each host governments may have their own goals of what they would like to achieve at COPs. 

Egypt’s vision for a successful COP27 is “progress across the board” on all climate issues “in a balanced and equitable manner”.⁵ This applies to four key goals: mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation for the impacts of climate change, financing from developed to emerging countries and the advancement of collaboration to accelerate climate action – see below for elaboration.⁶ 

Egypt aims to deliver “transformational adaptation” and address the many gaps across policy, planning, implementation and finance. A particular focus will be the Glasgow-Sharm el-Sheikh work programme on the Global Goal on Adaptation (see Figure 1), which seeks to build adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change. This work programme started immediately after COP26 and is scheduled to last for two years when final decisions are adopted.

In the run-up to COP27, the main ask of the 198 UNFCCC Parties was to revisit and strengthen their climate pledges. However, as of end September, only 23 have done so formally, or approximately one-tenth of the total parties. Those that have done so were most notably Egypt (COP27 host), the UK (COP26 host), Australia, India, and the UAE (COP28 host). Some Parties have indicated their intent to do so, yet have not formally submitted updates to the UNFCCC. Unless there is a significant volume of updates prior to the conference, the Parties may be asked to strength their pledges again prior to the end of 2023.

The term “loss and damage” refers to the consequences of climate change beyond what society can adapt to, or have the resources to access or utilise them.⁷ The issue of loss and damage almost derailed COP26 and we expect it to be equally challenging for negotiators at COP27. There are multiple facets to be aware of, but two key issues in particular. 

1. The Santiago network for loss and damage is designed to provide relevant tools and technical assistance to developing countries. Its functions were established at COP26 but the network is not yet fully operational. The terms of reference for the coordinating or convening body are expected to be agreed in Egypt, yet the issue of funding remains.
2. The Glasgow Dialogue on Loss & Damage, a formal discussion between Parties to look at funding for loss and damage, was established at COP26. The provision of funds was acknowledged, but not its form, source or amount. Developing nations will be looking for transparent and predictable funding to address loss and damage but developed nations may baulk at the idea of being obliged to provide even more financing. 

Finance is dotted throughout many climate issues given its crucial role for support and implementation. For example, finance is required to assist developing nations to mitigate and adapt, prepare for reporting and issues such as loss and damage. The four main finance issues to follow at COP27 are:

• The missing USD100bn

In 2009 (COP15), developed nations committed to providing USD100bn annually by 2020. COP26 recognised the failure to hit this target and developed nations then promised to deliver the USD100bn by 2022 (or by 2023 the latest). The figure was once again missed in 2022 and developing nations will look to assurances on funding in 2023.

• Doubling adaptation finance

Developed nations agreed to “at least double their collective provision of climate finance for adaptation” (from 2019 levels) by 2025, equivalent to a target of USD40bn. The amount is still a far cry from what is required for adaptation, but developing countries will again look to assurances on how this can be delivered.

• The new collective quantified goal on climate finance

Besides the USD100bn, COP26 established formal work programmes from 2022-2024, with a view to “setting a new collective quantified goal in 2024” (for after 2025). The overall aim is to contribute to the Paris Agreement and support future mobilisation, access and delivery of climate finance.

• Definitions of climate finance

As the UN has not officially defined on what constitutes as climate finance, a lot can therefore be grouped into this category. The Standing Committee on Finance at COP25 (in 2019) was tasked with coming up with a definition, which led to inputs from Parties at COP26. Similar inputs are expected at COP27 though a formal definition may not be agreed upon in Egypt.

The UNFCCC was adopted in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit and entered into force in 1994. Its main aim is the “stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”⁸ This is implemented through different sub-agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol (adopted in 1997, enforced in 2005) and the Paris Agreement (adopted in 2015, enforced in 2016).

In the run-up to the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, Parties were invited to present their contribution towards the global efforts to combat climate change. These were initially named as ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contributions’ and was later known as ‘Nationally Determined Contributions’ (NDCs). Parties were invited to revisit and strengthen their NDCs in 2022, yet only a few have done so.

Sign: A Party to the UNFCCC signing the Paris Agreement indicates its intention to be bound by the Agreement at a later date, subject to ratification, acceptance or approval. All 198 Parties are signatories to the Agreement (195 signatories plus Syria, Nicaragua and the Holy See directly ratifying).

Ratify: A Party becomes legally bound by the Agreement only once it deposits an instrument of ratification, acceptance or approval (which all carry the same legal effect). Parties that have ratified are legally bound by the Agreement and are allowed to take decisions with respect to the Agreement. Parties which have not yet ratified are only allowed to participate as observers in official meetings. Some 194 Parties have ratified (Iraq, Turkey and the Holy See are the newest additions), and only four have yet to ratify: Eritrea, Iran, Libya, and Yemen.